Internal risk assessment of development and implementation of the state programs

Abstract

The article shows the need to develop methods for quantifying the associated internal risks of planning and implementing government programs. The author demonstrates an approach to assessing the risk magnitude of programs by analyzing the ranges of stability of the program’s action plan parameters. A test case based on retrospective data from the state program of the Arkhangelsk region shows the applicability and adequacy of this approach. As part of the test case, the researcher showed the possibility of adapting the program’s action plan due to the influence of associated risks, assessing the magnitude of the program’s associated risks as indicators of the most problematic areas of implementation, and comparing the results of calculations with actual risks. The software implementation of the algorithms for the formation and evaluation of the program plan was carried out in the form of software developed by the author in the Python.

Keywords

• public administration
• state programs
• development of state programs
• implementation of state programs
• risk assessment of programs
• sensitivity analysis