ESTIMATION OF ELASTICITIES OF TRAVEL DEMAND BASED ON URBAN TRAVEL MODE CHOICE MODELS

Abstract

To develop travel demand management measures there is a need to estimate the travel cost and level-of-service attribute elasticities of travel demand for a certain mode. Estimation of travel demand elasticities can be carried out on the basis of urban travel mode choice models. The purpose of the study was to describe and test an approach to estimate the elasticities of travel demand based on urban travel mode choice models. Materials and methods: the approach to estimate the elasticities of travel demand is based on mathematical modeling of urban travel mode choices. The empirical data for model development and conduction of model experiments were the results of household travel survey within the city of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, as well as data on the travel cost and level-of-service attributes of each travel mode. Results: the approach was described and tested to estimate the travel cost and level-of-service attribute elasticities of travel demand for the short term (up to 2 years). Practical implications. The results of the study can be used to estimate the elasticities of transport demand in the development of travel demand management measures in cities.

Keywords

• транспортный спрос
• эластичность
• выбор способа передвижения
• модель дискретного выбора
• мультиномиальный логит
• управление транспортным спросом