Examining the determinants of global and local price passthrough in cereal markets: evidence from DCC-GJR-GARCH and panel analyses

Abstract

Abstract Existing literature has not yet identified the common determinants of price volatility transmission in agricultural commodities from international to local markets and has rarely investigated the role of self-sufficiency measures in the context of national food security. We analyzed several factors to determine the degree of volatility transmission in wheat, rice and maize prices between world and domestic markets using GARCH models with dynamic conditional correlation specifications and panel feasible generalized least square models. Our findings indicate that a grain autarky system can reduce volatility passthroughs for three grain commodities. While the substitutive commodity consumption behaviour between maize and wheat buffers the volatility transmissions of both, rice does not function as a transmission-relieving element for the volatility implying that rice is not a substitute for wheat or maize consumption; grain consumption proves a more effective substitute than cereal self-sufficiency for insulating passthroughs from global markets. These findings may help the governments of developing nations to protect their domestic food markets from the uncertain movements of foreign markets and may thus improve food security.

Keywords

• Volatility transmission
• Grain self-sufficiency
• Food security