COVID-19: From Short Term National Resilience to Medium Term Multilateral New Normal

Abstract

COVID-19 has shaken the world and forced us to rethink our development strategies and the whole systemic framework. Although globalization facilitated the pandemic, deglobalization will not prevail. Globalization will be rather transformed to promote positive and reduce/eliminate its negative effects. Pandemic has, apart from negative effects (spreading the virus), demonstrated some very positive sides of globalization like scientific cooperation. Enhancing resilience has become the main strategy of the mankind not only in terms of containing the pandemic but also in ex ante preventing it in the long run. A combination of containing and ex ante preventing the pandemics looks like then best strategy, because viruses are here to stay among us. It can be done by resolving Rodrik’s, to him, unresolvable trilemma, between autonomy, GLO and democracy on the national as well multilateral le vel. On the basis of possible future scenario developments, we demonstrate how multilateral solutions are a must to create the stable and effective framework for the adjustments and redesigning of the strategies and behaviour of all agents (individuals, firms and states) in a proactive way by thinking out of the existing boxes. Such a multilateral framework has to allow enough space for the national actions when they are better suited to national priorities and to fill the gaps, if international institution fail to be successful in addressing new challenges. Rethinking of our mind sets and theories are required and even new types of education and training for the creation of new competences of micro agents.

Keywords

• covid-19
• crisis
• vuca world
• new normal
• globalization
• deglobalization
• strategy
• resilience
• multilateralism
• rodrik’s trilemma
• micro agents