Development of small area population estimation models for a developing, densely populated metropolitan area and its applications: A case study of Metro Manila

Abstract

Projection of population in a small area is essential for the government to design proactive policies to support a variety of planning processes and making decisions. The private sector can use this information to do customer demand forecasting and market site targets on a small scale. However, most developing countries do not have this level of data for the development of small area population estimation models. The thrust of this study is to develop a linear regression-based small area population estimation model using recent census data of Metro Manila. The R2values of the developed population and household estimation models are 0.975 and 0.994, respectively, while the respective mean absolute errors (MAEs) are 9.76% and 7.98%. The developed models were then applied to project as mall area population. The area of Metro Manila with a population density of more than 50,000 persons/km2will increase from5.78% in 2010 to 9.23% in 2020, 15.14% in 2030, 21.76% in 2040, and 31.31% in 2050. The projected population within Metro Manila will increase from 11.89 million in 2010 to 29.16 million in 2050, with an average annual growth rate of 3.63% from 2010 to 2050.During this time, the population density will rise from 19,137 persons/km2in 2010 to 49,243 persons/km2in 2050. The total number of households is projected to increase from 2.89 million in 2010 to 7.49 million in 2050, which is a 2.59-fold increase.

Keywords

• demographicmodel
• population projection
• linear regression
• metro manila
• philippines