Analysis of the Distribution Pattern of <i>Phenacoccus manihoti</i> in China under Climate Change Based on the Biomod2 Model
Yumeng Huang,
Tong Li,
Weijia Chen,
Yuan Zhang,
Yanling Xu,
Tengda Guo,
Shuping Wang,
Jingyuan Liu,
Yujia Qin
Affiliations
Yumeng Huang
Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Tong Li
Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Weijia Chen
Technical Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs, Shanghai 200135, China
Yuan Zhang
Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Yanling Xu
Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Tengda Guo
Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Shuping Wang
Technical Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs, Shanghai 200135, China
Jingyuan Liu
Technical Center for Animal, Plant and Food Inspection and Quarantine of Shanghai Customs, Shanghai 200135, China
Yujia Qin
Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Management for Plant Quarantine Pests, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, College of Plant Protection, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
The changing global climate has significantly impacted the spread of plant pests. The cassava mealybug (Phenacoccus manihoti) is among the most dangerous quarantine pests affecting cassavas worldwide, causing substantial losses in agricultural production and food security across several regions. Although China is currently free of the cassava mealybug, its proximity to affected countries and extensive trade with these regions necessitate a detailed understanding of the pest’s distribution pattern and dynamic ecological niche changes. Using the Biomod2 model, we selected two historical climate scenarios and two future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the distribution patterns, potential habitats, distribution centers, and dynamic ecological niches of cassava mealybugs in China. Key environmental variables influencing the distribution were identified, including bio4, bio8, bio12, bio18, and bio19. The potential habitat of cassava mealybugs is mainly located in several provinces in southern China. In the future, the suitable habitat is projected to expand slightly under the influence of climate change, maintaining the overall trend, but the distribution center of suitable areas will shift northward. Dynamic ecological niche prediction results indicate the potential for further expansion; however, the ecological niches may be unequal and dissimilar in the invaded areas. The predictions could serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies to control the introduction of cassava mealybugs.
