Trends Characterization for Rainfall Time Series in Middle Euphrates Region, Iraq

Abstract

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of rainfall trends in the middle Euphrates region of Iraq, extending from 1980 to 2018, including wide region between the stations of Samawa, Al-Najaf, Karbala, Hilla, and Diwaniya. The research aims to fill a critical gap in the understanding of regional hydrological patterns and provide essential insights for sustainable water resource management. Using advanced statistical methods, such as the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, along with autocorrelation and cross-correlation analyses, we detected slight trends that were not previously reported. Principally, the Mann-Kendall test indicated no significant overall trends, while Sen’s slope estimator identified slight positive and negative trends at specific stations, highlighting local climatic variations. the findings reveal that all stations, except Samawa, indicated stationarity and homogeneity, with a particularly strong positive mutual correlation between Karbala and Hilla stations (0.7693 at lag 0). This research contributes new insights into rainfall variability in the Middle Euphrates, in Iraq, which presents significant data to improve water resource management strategies and inform future hydrological studies in the region.

Keywords

• autocorrelation analysis
• mann–kendall test
• middle euphrates in iraq
• rainfall trends
• sen’s slope estimator
• and water resources management