Microorganisms (Nov 2020)

Assessing the Risk of Occurrence of Bluetongue in Senegal

  • Marie Cicille Ba Gahn,
  • Fallou Niakh,
  • Mamadou Ciss,
  • Ismaila Seck,
  • Modou Moustapha Lo,
  • Assane Gueye Fall,
  • Biram Biteye,
  • Moussa Fall,
  • Mbengué Ndiaye,
  • Aminata Ba,
  • Momar Talla Seck,
  • Baba Sall,
  • Mbargou Lo,
  • Coumba Faye,
  • Cécile Squarzoni-Diaw,
  • Alioune Ka,
  • Yves Amevoin,
  • Andrea Apolloni

DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms8111766
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 8, no. 11
p. 1766

Abstract

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Bluetongue is a non-contagious viral disease affecting small ruminants and cattle that can cause severe economic losses in the livestock sector. The virus is transmitted by certain species of the genus Culicoides and consequently, understanding their distribution is essential to enable the identification of high-risk transmission areas. In this work we use bioclimatic and environmental variables to predict vector abundance, and estimate spatial variations in the basic reproductive ratio R0. The resulting estimates were combined with livestock mobility and serological data to assess the risk of Bluetongue outbreaks in Senegal. The results show an increasing abundance of C. imicola, C. oxystoma, C. enderleini, and C. miombo from north to south. R0 R0 = 2.7 and 2.9, respectively). The next higher risk areas are in the Senegal River Valley (R0 = 1.07), and the Atlantic coast zones. Seroprevalence rates, shown by cELISA, weren’t positively correlated with outbreak probability. Future works should include follow-up studies of competent vector abundancies and serological surveys based on the results of the risk analysis conducted here to optimize the national epidemiological surveillance system.

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