Will life find a way out? Evolutionary rescue and Darwinian adaptation to climate change

Abstract

Results from ecological niche models usually indicate a worrying scenario in terms of biodiversity loss. Continuous efforts to improve these models (e.g., allowing for dispersal limitation) have recently been updated to include the potential of species’ persistence, in otherwise unsuitable regions, due to natural selection (a process called evolutionary rescue). Here we discuss the major challenges in incorporating evolutionary rescue in models evaluating the impacts of global changes on species distributions. We also highlight some alternatives to overcome these challenges using simulations. Based on the current available evidence, we conclude that the potential of evolutionary rescue is low. However, due to the paucity of data to feed evolutionary rescue models and the interaction with other factors (e.g. habitat fragmentation), we still do not know the potential of adaptation to rescue biodiversity from climate change.

Keywords

• Evolutionary rescue
• Adaptation
• Climate change
• Simulation
• Modeling
• Warming