Application of hydrological models in climate change framework for a river basin in India

Abstract

Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS), and Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) are explored for streamflow simulation of Lower Godavari Basin, India. The simulating ability of models is evaluated using four indicators. SWAT has shown exceptional simulating ability in calibration and validation compared to the other two. Accordingly, SWAT is used in the climate change framework using an ensemble of 13 Global Climate Models and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Three time segments, near-future (2021–2046), mid-future (2047–2072), and far-future (2073–2099), are considered for analysis. Four SSPs show a substantial increase in streamflow compared to the historical period (1982–2020). These deviations range from 17.14 (in SSP245) to 28.35% (in SSP126) (near-future), 31.32 (SSP370) to 43.28% (SSP585) (mid-future), and 30.41 (SSP126) to 70.8% (SSP585) (far-future). Across all timescales covering 948 months, the highest projected streamflows observed in SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 were 4962.36, 6,108, 6,821, and 6,845 m3/s, respectively. Efforts are also made to appraise the influence of multi-model combinations on streamflow. The present study is expected to provide a platform for holistic decision-making, which helps develop efficient basin planning and management alternatives. HIGHLIGHTS SWAT performed ahead of HEC-HMS and HSPF in training and testing for all chosen indicators.; Four SSPs show a substantial increase in streamflow compared to the historical period (1982–2020).; Across all timescales, the highest projected streamflows observed in SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 were 4962.36, 6,108, 6,821, and 6,845 m3/s, respectively.; Four multi-model combinations were developed.;

Keywords

• global climate models
• hec-hms
• hspf
• lower godavari basin
• streamflow
• swat