Naukovij Vìsnik Nacìonalʹnoï Akademìï Statistiki, Oblìku ta Auditu (Nov 2021)
Economic Cycles in the Modern Times: Global and Ukrainian Trends
Abstract
The high degree of economic development and globalization of society in the XXI century necessitated a rapid response of market participants to events of any scale occurring in different parts of the world, in order to ensure the achievement of planned goals. When reading the publications containing the characteristics of current events in the economy, it is thought that their authors decided to reject the findings of world-renowned scientists on the laws of economic development and offer society to solve economic problems instead of laws to rely on expert assessments. The article points out the need to take into account the scientific principles of characterization of patterns of economic development in modern conditions by statistical evaluation of changes in relevant parameters. This approach allows us to predict the timing of changes in the nature of development, in particular - the onset of economic crises of various scales, which will allow in advance to develop preventive measures to mitigate their impact on the welfare of ordinary citizens. Taking into account the factors that can both help and hinder the observance of a certain direction of movement requires analysis and forecasting of the state and trends of world and national trends on the basis of scientific laws of market economy, in particular the cyclical nature of its development. The existence of economic cycles was discovered, received scientific proof and historical confirmation. The reasons that led to cyclical changes in the economy, in particular the emergence of crises, were identified. Appropriate indicators should be used to characterize these causes. First of all, countries with insufficiently high level of economic development need to constantly monitor global economic trends on these principles. This is due to the fact that, as can be seen from the example of Ukraine, such countries are more vulnerable to the negative effects of economic crises.
