Impact of capital market volatility on economic growth - An analysis based on stochastic volatility model

Abstract

This paper delves into the relationship between the volatility of the capital market and economic growth within the broader framework of the macro capital market. By employing the Heston stochastic volatility model in tandem with macroeconomic theory, we aim to analyze the stochastic control problem between the allocation trajectory of macro-capital and economic fluctuations. Our mathematical analysis reveals that the influence of capital shifts on economic growth's volatility varies across different capital markets due to diverse risk levels inherent within the macro-capital market. To validate these mathematical findings, we embark on an empirical econometric analysis tailored to the nuances of China's capital market and its macroeconomic operations. This econometric exploration yields two primary insights: 1. Distinct components of China's capital market have varying influences on macroeconomic growth. 2. The structure of China's capital market, especially in its impact on macroeconomic development, exhibits imbalances and lacks optimal configuration.

Keywords

• Heston stochastic volatility model
• Capital market
• Economic growth
• VAR model
• Impulse response