A Method for Developing Seismic Hazard-Consistent Fragility Curves for Soil Liquefaction Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Abstract

The objective of this study is to present a method for developing fragility curves for soil liquefaction that align with seismic hazards using Monte Carlo simulation. This approach can incorporate all uncertainties and variabilities in the input parameters. The seismic parameters, including earthquake magnitude (M) and associated peak ground acceleration (PGA), are jointly considered for the liquefaction assessment. The liquefaction potential and the resulting damages obtained by this method are more realistic. A case study is conducted using data from a sand-boil site in Yuanlin, Changhua County, where liquefaction occurred during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake in Taiwan. The findings indicate that the liquefaction potential index, IL, the post-liquefaction settlement, St, and the liquefaction probability index, PW, are all appropriate parameters for assessing liquefaction damages. The fragility curves for soil liquefaction developed through this method can support the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) approach, provide guidance for liquefaction evaluation to the Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES), and serve as a foundation for scenario simulation and an earthquake early warning system for liquefaction damages.

Keywords

• soil liquefaction
• fragility curve
• hazard consistent
• Monte Carlo simulation