Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Money Velocity in the Egyptian Economy

Abstract

This study aims to demonstrate the impact of exchange rate changes on the velocity of money in the Egyptian economy, especially after the exchange rate underwent several changes that led to a significant depreciation of the Egyptian pound. The velocity of money has been influenced by various economic variables, including the interest rate, gross domestic product (GDP), per capita income, foreign reserves, exports and imports, the degree of financial development, and the broad money supply.Among these, the exchange rate is considered one of the most significant influencing variables, as it serves as a dual economic adjustment tool to achieve both internal and external balance.To achieve this goal, the study utilized annual time series data spanning from 2000 to 2024. It employed two approaches: the analytical approach, which encompasses economic theories that identify the key determinants of exchange rate fluctuations and the velocity of money, aiming to uncover the pathways through which the exchange rate influences the velocity of money. Additionally, the econometric approach was applied, using time series data for both independent variables and the dependent variable through the ARIMA model.The results of the study indicated a significant positive correlation between the exchange rate, per capita income, and the velocity of money. Conversely, the study found a significant negative correlation between foreign currency reserves, the broad money supply, and the velocity of money.

Keywords

• money velocity
• foreign reserves
• m2 (the broad money supply)
• gdp per capita
• exchange rate