Application of The ARIMA Model to Forecast the Price of the Commodity Corn

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the behavior of the average price received by the producer for the Brazilian commodity corn. Therefore, we tried to perform a forecast for the price of this product using the ARIMA methodology. The period analyzed by modeling was between March 2004 and March 2016. The ARMA (1.2) estimate was efficient and showed satisfactory projection for predicting corn prices in the Brazilian market. The results provide an analysis tool for the market of this commodity, in that it shows the price trend along a short-term horizon, providing help to decision-making agents who commercialize this good.

Keywords

• ARIMA modeling
• Corn commodity
• Forecast