Value of age and alarm features for predicting upper gastrointestinal malignancy in patients with dyspepsia: an endoscopic database review of 4664 patients in Thailand

Abstract

Objective Age and alarm features are commonly used as indicators for endoscopy in dyspeptic patients; however, the age cut-off and the predictive value of these parameters for identifying upper gastrointestinal (UGI) malignancies are uncertain.Design Cross-sectional study.Setting Data were extracted from the Gastrointestinal Endoscopy Centre of Siriraj Hospital, Thailand, during 2005–2011.Participants Consecutive patients underwent a first-time upper endoscopy for dyspepsia. Patients with previous surgery, suspected UGI malignancy by imaging, or indefinite biopsy results on prior examination were excluded.Main outcome measures Alarm features included dysphagia, unintentional weight loss, GI bleeding/anaemia, and persistent vomiting. The diagnostic performance of each alarm feature and different age cut-off values were evaluated.Results A total of 4664 patients (mean age: 52.0±14.4 years, 66% female) were included. Alarm symptoms were presented in 21.6%. The prevalence of active Helicobacter pylori infection was 26.3%. Fifty-eight (1.2%) patients had UGI malignancy. The prevalence of malignancy significantly increased with increasing age (0.6% in patients aged <50 years, and 1.8% in patients aged >60 years (p<0.001)). Cancer was found in two patients aged <50 years who did not have alarm features. Patients with alarm features had a higher prevalence of malignancy (OR 22.3, 95% CI 10.5 to 47.4; p<0.001) than those without. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of alarm features for UGI malignancy were 87.0%, 79.1%, 4.7% and 99.8%, respectively. Among all age groups, persistent vomiting had a positive likelihood ratio (PLR) >10, while dysphagia and GI bleeding/anaemia had a PLR >10 in patients <50 years old.Conclusion Despite the overall limited value of age and alarm features, persistent vomiting, dysphagia, and GI bleeding/anaemia are strong predictors for malignancy in patients aged <50 years. Without these symptoms, cancer prevalence is negligible; thus, they are worthy guidance for endoscopic evaluation in this age group.