PLoS ONE (Jan 2023)

Application of a life table approach to assess duration of BNT162b2 vaccine-derived immunity by age using COVID-19 case surveillance data during the Omicron variant period.

  • Maya R Sternberg,
  • Amelia Johnson,
  • Justice King,
  • Akilah R Ali,
  • Lauren Linde,
  • Abiola O Awofeso,
  • Jodee S Baker,
  • Nagla S Bayoumi,
  • Steven Broadway,
  • Katherine Busen,
  • Carolyn Chang,
  • Iris Cheng,
  • Mike Cima,
  • Abi Collingwood,
  • Vajeera Dorabawila,
  • Cherie Drenzek,
  • Aaron Fleischauer,
  • Ashley Gent,
  • Amanda Hartley,
  • Liam Hicks,
  • Mikhail Hoskins,
  • Amanda Jara,
  • Amanda Jones,
  • Saadiah I Khan,
  • Ishrat Kamal-Ahmed,
  • Sarah Kangas,
  • Fnu Kanishka,
  • Alison Kleppinger,
  • Anna Kocharian,
  • Tomás M León,
  • Ruth Link-Gelles,
  • B Casey Lyons,
  • John Masarik,
  • Andrea May,
  • Donald McCormick,
  • Stephanie Meyer,
  • Lauren Milroy,
  • Keeley J Morris,
  • Lauren Nelson,
  • Enaholo Omoike,
  • Komal Patel,
  • Michael Pietrowski,
  • Melissa A Pike,
  • Tamara Pilishvili,
  • Xandy Peterson Pompa,
  • Charles Powell,
  • Kevin Praetorius,
  • Eli Rosenberg,
  • Adam Schiller,
  • Mayra L Smith-Coronado,
  • Emma Stanislawski,
  • Kyle Strand,
  • Buddhi P Tilakaratne,
  • Hailey Vest,
  • Caleb Wiedeman,
  • Allison Zaldivar,
  • Benjamin Silk,
  • Heather M Scobie

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0291678
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 18, no. 9
p. e0291678

Abstract

Read online

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants have the potential to impact vaccine effectiveness and duration of vaccine-derived immunity. We analyzed U.S. multi-jurisdictional COVID-19 vaccine breakthrough surveillance data to examine potential waning of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection for the Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b) primary vaccination series by age.MethodsWeekly numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections during January 16, 2022-May 28, 2022 were analyzed by age group from 22 U.S. jurisdictions that routinely linked COVID-19 case surveillance and immunization data. A life table approach incorporating line-listed and aggregated COVID-19 case datasets with vaccine administration and U.S. Census data was used to estimate hazard rates of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hazard rate ratios (HRR) and percent reductions in hazard rate comparing unvaccinated people to people vaccinated with a Pfizer-BioNTech primary series only, by age group and time since vaccination.ResultsThe percent reduction in hazard rates for persons 2 weeks after vaccination with a Pfizer-BioNTech primary series compared with unvaccinated persons was lowest among children aged 5-11 years at 35.5% (95% CI: 33.3%, 37.6%) compared to the older age groups, which ranged from 68.7%-89.6%. By 19 weeks after vaccination, all age groups showed decreases in the percent reduction in the hazard rates compared with unvaccinated people; with the largest declines observed among those aged 5-11 and 12-17 years and more modest declines observed among those 18 years and older.ConclusionsThe decline in vaccine protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection observed in this study is consistent with other studies and demonstrates that national case surveillance data were useful for assessing early signals in age-specific waning of vaccine protection during the initial period of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant predominance. The potential for waning immunity during the Omicron period emphasizes the importance of continued monitoring and consideration of optimal timing and provision of booster doses in the future.