Machine learning analysis of pathological images to predict 1-year progression-free survival of immunotherapy in patients with small-cell lung cancer

Abstract

Background In small-cell lung cancer (SCLC), the tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) could be a promising biomarker for immunotherapy, but objectively evaluating TIME remains challenging. Hence, we aimed to develop a predictive biomarker of immunotherapy efficacy through a machine learning analysis of the TIME.Methods We conducted a biomarker analysis in a prospective study of patients with extensive-stage SCLC who received chemoimmunotherapy as the first-line treatment. We trained a model to predict 1-year progression-free survival (PFS) using pathological images (H&E, programmed cell death-ligand 1 (PD-L1), and double immunohistochemical assay (cluster of differentiation 8 (CD8) and forkhead box P3 (FoxP3)) and patient information. The primary outcome was the mean area under the curve (AUC) of machine learning models in predicting the 1-year PFS.Results We analyzed 100,544 patches of pathological images from 78 patients. The mean AUC values of patient information, pathological image, and combined models were 0.789 (range 0.571–0.982), 0.782 (range 0.750–0.911), and 0.868 (range 0.786–0.929), respectively. The PFS was longer in the high efficacy group than in the low efficacy group in all three models (patient information model, HR 0.468, 95% CI 0.287 to 0.762; pathological image model, HR 0.334, 95% CI 0.117 to 0.628; combined model, HR 0.353, 95% CI 0.195 to 0.637). The machine learning analysis of the TIME had better accuracy than the human count evaluations (AUC of human count, CD8-positive lymphocyte: 0.681, FoxP3-positive lymphocytes: 0.626, PD-L1 score: 0.567).Conclusions The spatial analysis of the TIME using machine learning predicted the immunotherapy efficacy in patients with SCLC, thus supporting its role as an immunotherapy biomarker.