Numerical modeling on age-based study of coronavirus transmission

Abstract

Ethiopia is one of the countries highly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa. A new study has looked at the transmission dynamics of the outbreak in Ethiopia based on the age categories of the infected individuals. Infected individuals are divided into three age categories (less than 14 years (I $ _{1} $ ), 15–54 years (I $ _{2} $ ), and above 54 years I $ _{3} $ ). Chebyshev polynomial of the fourth kind is used to convert a fractional system into an algebraic system of equations, which is then solved using iterative methods. The fundamental reproduction number $ (\mathcal R _{0}) $ is calculated using the next-generation matrix technique, and the disease-free and endemic equilibrium points, as well as their stability, are carefully studied. We calculated the parameters and starting conditions provided for our model using data from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute (EPHI) and the Ethiopian Ministry of Health from 29 February 2021, to 7 June 2021.

Keywords

• covid-19
• mittag-leffler function
• caputo fractional derivative
• chebyshev polynomials
• fractional modeling
• stability analysis
• chebyshev spectral collocation method