Characterizing the development and drivers of 2021 Western US drought

Abstract

Understanding the drivers of the major 2021 drought conditions across the Western U.S. (WUS) is important to develop future resilience and adaptation measures. While evapotranspiration (ET) tends to increase in a warming climate when water is available, areas with low precipitation would evaporate less water than expected, as seen in the 2021 drought. This study examines the relative roles of higher temperatures and lower precipitation, as well as anthropogenic forcing (e.g. increased greenhouse gases and land-use land-cover change) to the 2021 drought across the WUS. Using observations, the anomalously dry 2021 soil moisture is mainly tied to precipitation deficit, rather than higher temperatures, suggesting that an increase in ET in response to higher temperatures (i.e. saturation deficit) depends on water availability. Therefore, high temperatures may play only a secondary role in driving the 2021 drought condition across the WUS. Additionally, a suite of variable infiltration capacity model experiments confirms that the reduced precipitation in 2021 has caused negative soil moisture anomalies. Based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 experiments, anthropogenic forcing dramatically increases the risk of the extreme 2021 dryness, with risk ratio being 73.91, 12.78 and 25.81 for temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture respectively. Therefore, the extreme drought is not explained by natural forcing (e.g. solar irradiance and volcanic eruption) alone. Rather, anthropogenic forcing (e.g. increased greenhouse gases and land-use land-cover change) has increased the risk of this drought condition by approximately 26 times in terms of soil moisture compared with a world without this forcing.

Keywords

• drought
• Western U.S.
• precipitation
• temperature
• anthropogenic forcing