Urban Seismic Risk Assessment and Damage Estimation: Case of Rif Buildings (North of Morocco)

Abstract

The interest in assessing seismic risk in earthquake-prone regions in Morocco has been increasing over recent decades, to a large extent due to the substantial amount of damage imposed by recent events and because the population in these regions has grown significantly. In this context, the present study is aimed to contribute to the understanding of seismic risk in the urban areas of the Rif region, one of the most seismically active zones of Morocco, through the development and analysis of 36 building models representative of this area. Two earthquake scenarios were considered for the assessment of the seismic hazard, based on the national seismic code and the European code adapted to local seismic parameters. The performance points, determined following generated response and capacity spectra, made it possible to establish damage probability matrices. Obtained results corroborate those of previous reports, confirming that the damage is more significant in Imzouren due to the nature of the soil. It has also been shown that the credibility of the response spectra drawn from the national code is questioned, given the extreme damage estimated. The adapted European spectrum proved to be a more reliable probabilistic earthquake scenario for damage estimation.

Keywords

• capacity spectrum method
• capacity curves
• fragility curves
• response spectra
• performance point
• damage states