Optimal multireservoir operation for flood control under constrained operational rules

Abstract

Abstract This paper presents a multireservoir flood control model that incorporates operating rules to alleviate the risk that results from traditional flood control models. The model is accurately reformulated into one that can be solved with the mixed integer linear programming (MILP) and approximated with a two‐stage linear programming (TSLP) to speed up the solution by excluding all the binary variables. A scroll decision‐making strategy is proposed by assuming only a few days of future inflows being predicted with certainty. With 10 historical and 30 designed floods in different magnitudes, the models and methods are applied to the Yangtze River basin, which includes 11 cascade reservoirs. The results on average show the MILP reduces the rule violation by 17%, while the TSLP is more than 150 times faster in CPU time. Excluding one of the reservoirs from the simulation reveals that the Three Gorges (TG) contributes the most in flood detention, accounting for 76% on average for once‐in‐a‐century floods. Interestingly, with the scroll decision‐making strategy implemented, the change from 3 to 7 days of certain forecasting has the most significant reduction in both the rule violation and flood detention, indicating that the forecasting accuracy of more recent inflows is more valuable for flood control.

Keywords

• flood control
• linear programming
• operational rules
• reservoir operation
• scroll strategy
• two‐stage method