Statistics and Public Policy (Jan 2021)

Failure and Success in Political Polling and Election Forecasting

  • Andrew Gelman

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1080/2330443X.2021.1971126
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 8, no. 1
pp. 67 – 72

Abstract

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The recent successes and failures of political polling invite several questions: Why did the polls get it wrong in some high-profile races? Conversely, how is it that polls can perform so well, even given all the evident challenges of conducting and interpreting them?

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