Evaluating landslide response in a seismic and rainfall regime: a case study from the SE Carpathians, Romania

Abstract

There have been many studies exploring rainfall-induced slope failures in earthquake-affected terrain. However, studies evaluating the potential effects of both landslide-triggering factors – rainfall and earthquakes – have been infrequent despite rising global landslide mortality risk. The SE Carpathians, which have been subjected to many large historical earthquakes and changing climate thus resulting in frequent landslides, comprise one such region that has been little explored in this context. Therefore, a massive (∼9.1 Mm2) landslide, situated along the river Bâsca Rozilei, in the Vrancea seismic zone, SE Carpathians, is chosen as a case study area to achieve the aforesaid objective (evaluating the effects of both rainfall and earthquakes on landslides) using slope stability evaluation and runout simulation. The present state of the slope reveals a factor of safety in a range of 1.17–1.32 with a static condition displacement of 0.4–4 m that reaches up to 8–60 m under dynamic (earthquake) conditions. The groundwater (GW) effect further decreases the factor of safety and increases the displacement. Ground motion amplification enhances the possibility of slope surface deformation and displacements. The debris flow prediction, implying the excessive rainfall effect, reveals a flow having a 9.0–26.0 m height and 2.1–3.0 m s−1 velocity along the river channel. The predicted extent of potential debris flow is found to follow the trails possibly created by previous debris flow and/or slide events.