SHADOW ECONOMY NEXUS OF NON-PERFORMING LOANS IN EMERGING MARKETS

Abstract

This study examines the nexus between non-performing loans (NPLs) and the shadow economy, as well as macroeconomic and bank-specific variables, in 25 emerging countries from the period starting 1998 to 2017 period. The Driscoll-Kraay standard errors and a fixed effect estimator have been employed, and the results suggest that NPLs have a positive relationship with the shadow economy as well as inflation and trade openness. In contrast, GDP, unemployment, household consumption, credit to deposit ratio, broad money, bank return on equity, and overall economic freedom index have a negative effect on NPLs. Our results demonstrate the complex nature of non-performing loans, which are influenced by both microeconomic and macroeconomic factors.

Keywords

• non-performing loans
• shadow economy
• macroeconomic factors
• economic freedom index
• emerging markets