Terrestrial Stilling Projected to Continue in the Northern Hemisphere Mid‐Latitudes

Abstract

Abstract The near‐surface wind speed over land has declined in recent decades, a trend known as terrestrial stilling (TS). However, recent studies have indicated a reversal of the TS during the last decade, triggering renovated interest in the future wind speed changes. This study examines the TS over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) land areas and explores its future changes under Model Inter‐comparison Projection Phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. The results show that the NH mid‐latitude TS will likely continue during the whole 21st century under mid‐to‐high greenhouse warmings (SSPs‐245, 370, and 585). Nevertheless, if the world reduces carbon emissions substantially (SSP‐126), the TS will be interrupted and likely reversed after the mid‐21st century. The projected TS shows seasonal differences, with the largest (smallest) decreasing trends of wind speed in boreal summer (winter). Moreover, the TS reversal during the last decade is suggested as a multi‐decadal fluctuation related to the Pacific and Atlantic multi‐decadal oscillations. In addition, this study proposes that increased upper‐air warming in the future climate could play a key role in reducing the NH mid‐latitude surface wind speed. The continuing TS provides strong implications for the near‐surface environment and wind energy development, particularly for countries in the NH mid‐latitudes.