RESTRICTIONS OF MODELS OF GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM IN FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS

Abstract

The dynamics of forecasts of dynamics and socio-economic systems based on general equilibrium. The author considers various variations of these models, opportunities and critical points identified for their use. The article proposes to pay attention to a reasonable approach when developing forecasts in relation to the socio-economic environment in order to bring the predicted results closer to the real economy and to study the influence of deeper micro-level processes on macro-level indicators. Purpose – identify the limitations of various kinds of models based on “input-output” tables when forecasting the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Methodology: the work is based on the methods of comparative analysis of forecasting methodologies based on various variations of the general equilibrium models. Results: The obtained results represent the theoretical basis for using this type of analysis in relation to other forecasting methods. Practical implications: The results obtained in the article are applicable to the use of forecasts to identify changes in socio-economic systems.

Keywords

• социально-экономический прогноз
• модели на основе таблиц «затраты-выпуск»
• гравитационные модели
• экономико-психологические факторы
• методология прогнозирования