EClinicalMedicine (Dec 2022)
Global monkeypox case hospitalisation rates: A rapid systematic review and meta-analysisResearch in context
Abstract
Summary: Background: Estimates of the case hospitalization rate and case fatality rate when hospital care is available for monkeypox (MPX) infections have not been well defined. This rapid systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to estimate the case hospitalisation rate and case fatality rate where hospital care is available. Methods: We systematically searched PubMed, Embase, the Lancet Preprints, and MedRxiv for studies published between Jan 1, 1950 and Aug 2, 2022. We included documents which contained both the number of cases and associated hospitalisations of MPX infections. From eligible studies we extracted the country, the year of the study, the study design type, the clade of MPX, the participant characteristics, transmission type, any treatments used, number of cases (including suspected, probable, or laboratory confirmed diagnosis), number of hospitalizations, hospitalized patient outcomes, and case definition. Case hospitalization rate (CHR) was defined as the proportion of cases that were admitted to hospital care while case fatality rate (CFR) was defined as the proportion of cases that died. CHR and CFR were analysed in a fully Bayesian meta-analytic framework using random effects models, including sub-group analysis with heterogeneity assessed using I2. Findings: Of the 259 unique documents identified, 19 studies were eligible for inclusion. Included studies represented 7553 reported cases among which there were 555 hospitalizations. Of the 7540 cases for which outcomes were available, there were 15 recorded deaths. The median age of cases was 35 years (interquartile range 28–38, n = 2010) and primarily male (7339/7489, 98%) in studies where age or sex were available. Combined CHR was estimated to be 14.1% (95% credible interval, 7.5–25.0, I2 97.4%), with a high degree of heterogeneity. Further analysis by outbreak period indicates CHRs of 49.8% (28.2–74.0, I2 81.4%), 21.7% (7.2–52.1, I2 57.7%), and 5.8% (3.2–9.4, I2 92.4%) during the pre-2017, 2017–2021, and 2022 outbreaks, respectively, again with high levels of heterogeneity. CFR was estimated to be 0.03% (0.0–0.44, I2 99.9%), with evidence of large heterogeneity between the studies. Interpretation: There is limited data for MPX hospitalization rates in countries where MPX has been traditionally non-endemic until the current outbreak. Due to substantial heterogeneity, caution is needed when interpreting these findings. Health care organizations should be cognizant of the potential increase in healthcare utilization. Rapid identification of infection and use of appropriate therapies such as antivirals play a role reducing the CHR and associated CFR. Funding: None.
