Transition scenarios of power generation in China under global 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets

Abstract

Under the Paris Agreement, targets implemented for 2100 specify temperature increases well below 2 °C, with an ambitious target of 1.5 °C. China signed this agreement and will support these global targets. The question remains whether they are possible, especially considering the slow progress in recent decades, despite the fact that the Kyoto Protocol implemented these targets in 2010. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) required modeling research teams to analyze possible pathways, policy options, and cost benefit analyses for GHG mitigation. China’s CO2 emissions from the energy and cement industries already accounted for almost 29% of global emissions in 2017, and this trend is expected to continue increasing. The role of China in global GHG mitigation is therefore crucial. This study presents a scenario analysis for China’s power generation against the background of the global 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. We discuss the possibility of a lower CO2 emission power generation scenario in China in order to evaluate the national emission pathway towards these targets. Our findings suggest that China can accomplish rapid transition in the power generation sector, reaching its emission peak before 2025. This would make the global 2 °C target possible because energy system development is a key factor. Furthermore, the recent progress of key power generation technologies, potential for further investment in the power generation sector, and recent policy implementation all significantly contribute to China following a low carbon emission development pathway. Keywords: GHG mitigation, Emission scenarios, Global target, China, Modeling