Modeling for Energy Supply Management in Iran Based on Technical, Economic and Environmental Criteria

Abstract

These days, achieving an optimal model and defining a comprehensive map for energy supply have become necessary in Iran. Considering a holistic approach and drawing a desired state in the different aspects of sustainability, including technical, economic and environmental criteria, this study introduces an optimal model in order to achieve cost-effective and environment-friendly energy resources under various 100 to 500-year scenarios using a genetic algorithm. Results determined the appropriate portfolio of energy resources in each mentioned period. According to the results, the share of fossil fuels to supply energy is higher than the other resources and the relative impact of financial indicator is more substantial than the environmental indicator in short-run, while this trend is rapidly changing toward renewable energy resources; so that a share of 63 percents of fossil fuels in the 100-year period has changed to the share of 62 percents of renewable energies during the 500-year period. Also estimating the harvest of each of the energy resources from there source capacity over a year showed that, along with increasing the length of various scenarios, the use of renewable and environment-friendly resources is recommended nearly full capacity utilization.

Keywords

• geothermal power
• energy price liberalization
• competitiveness
• levelized cost of electricity