Effects of domestic and export prices on farm price – an econometric analysis for black tiger shrimp

Abstract

From historical data from Jan 2007 to Dec 2010, an econometric analysis with cointegration test and error correction modeling has confirmed a positive price linkages between prices at different levels in value chain of black tiger shrimp (Panaeus monodon). As wholesale price of the shrimp increased by 10%, farm price is estimated to increase by 5.5% in short run and 4% in long run, ceteris parabus. Export price of tiger shrimp seems not to give a significant short run effect on its farm price. In long run, a c.p. 10% increase in export price would raise farm price of tiger shrimp by 1%. The farm price is also estimated not to be affected neither by retail price at traditional markets nor by seasonal factors. The findings are expect to equip shrimp farmers with knowledge on price signals from wholesale and export markets to help them in production planning.

Keywords

• tôm sú
• phân tích giá
• xuất khẩu
• chuỗi giá trị
• mô hình hiệu chỉnh sai số