PREDICTION OF FINE PARTICULATE MATTER IN LOW-EMISSION ZONES USING A MODIFIED NUMERICAL METHOD FOR A SYSTEM OF ORDINARY DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS

Abstract

Currently, many European cities have severely exceeded the EU air quality standards and are struggling with high concentrations of fine particulate matter PM10 and PM2.5 in the air, with road transport often being one of the major polluters. One of the forms for correction of the problem that many cities in the EU are currently using is the construction of low-emission zones. For the prediction of PM10 and PM2.5, a modified numerical method for a system of ordinary differential equations has been proposed. In the right part of this system, in addition to the main trend and the periodicity of PM10 and PM2.5, their correlation is taken into account. Against the background of the best solution obtained, a forecast is made for the emission levels in a period of one week in the town of Ruse.

Keywords

• low-emission zone
• pm10
• pm2.5
• prediction