A nomogram for predicting the recurrence of small bowel obstruction after gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer

Abstract

Abstract Background This study aimed to create a nomogram for predicting the recurrence of small bowel obstruction (SBO) after gastrectomy in patients with gastric cancer (GC) in order to provide better guidance for its diagnosis and treatment. Methods A total of 173 patients undergone gastrectomy and developed SBO from January 2015 to October 2022 were admitted into this case–control study. The risk factors of postoperative recurrent SBO were analyzed by univariate and multivariate regression, and a nomogram for predicting the recurrent SBO after gastrectomy was developed using R Studio. Results Thirty-nine cases of postoperative recurrent SBO occurred among the 173 GC patients who underwent radical gastrectomy, and the percentage of recurrent SBO was 22.54% (39/173). Age [odds ratio (OR) = 0.938, p = 0.026], WBC count (OR = 1.547, p < 0.001), tumor size (OR = 1.383, p = 0.024), postoperative metastasis (OR = 11.792, p = 0.030), and the interval from gastrectomy to first SBO (OR = 1.057, p < 0.001) were all identified as independent risk factors for postoperative recurrent SBO by logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic curve, the calibration curve, the model consistency index, and the decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had good predictive performance. Conclusion Based on these factors, we created a nomogram to predict the occurrence of postoperative recurrent SBO. This novel nomogram could serve as a crucial early warning indicator that would guide doctors to make informed decisions while managing patients with gastric cancer.

Keywords

• Gastric cancer
• Small bowel obstruction
• Recurrence
• Risk factors
• Nomogram