Quantitative characterization, spatiotemporal evolution, and analysis of driving factors of daily dry-wet abrupt alternation: A case study of the Ganjiang River Basin

Abstract

Study Region: This study focuses on the Ganjiang River Basin, a major tributary of the Poyang Lake located in southern China. Study Focus: With the growing frequency of extreme weather events driven by climate change, there is increased attention on compound disasters such as Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation (DWAA). This study aims to quantify and define DWAA in the Ganjiang River Basin by developing and applying a DWAA Index (DWAAI) using a percentile threshold method. The objective is to investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics and patterns of DWAA in the region. Precipitation data from 12 meteorological stations were analyzed to track these events from 1970 to 2019. New Hydrological Insights For the region: The results of this study provide new insights into DWAA dynamics in the Ganjiang River Basin. Key findings include: (i) The DWAAI effectively captures the extremes of Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternations, especially at the 1st and 99th percentiles; (ii) The basin experienced 37–48 dry-to-wet events (DtWs) during the study period, with higher frequencies observed in the central-eastern, western, and northern mountainous areas, and lower frequencies in the southern regions; (iii) Wet-to-dry events (WtDs) were less common than DtWs and exhibited a distinct spatial and temporal shift from the southern mountains toward the central basin; (iv) Temperature was identified as the dominant factor influencing DWAAI changes, while large-scale atmospheric patterns such as AO, ENSO, PDO, and Sunspot activity showed insignificant correlations. These findings offer critical insights for improving water resource management and climate adaptation efforts in the region.

Keywords

• Dry-Wet Abrupt Alternation
• Quantitative characterization
• Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics
• Extreme precipitation
• The Ganjiang River Basin