Финансы: теория и практика (Dec 2020)
Developing Credit Risk Assessment Methods to Make loss Provisions for Potential loans
Abstract
According to Bank of Russia Regulation No. 590-P dated June 28, 2017, Russian banks assess credit risk and make loss provisions for potential loans. Since 01.01.2018, credit institutions have been required to create loss provisions for expected losses in accordance with international standards (IFRS 9). This novation seems relevant due to the lack of a common risk assessment method and the importance of cost optimization on loan provisions. The aim of the study is to improve the credit risk assessment method for making loss provisions for potential loans. The author used the methods of system and logical analysis and synthesis, techniques of high financial calculations, the balance method, the method of financial ratios. When estimating the probability of borrowers’ default, potential credit losses and loan provisions, the author applied actuarial, market, statistical and econometric methods. Based on a Russian bank’s sample data for 2012-2019, the author developed a regression model that establishes the relationship between financial ratios and the default of corporate borrowers — agricultural producers, and checked the significance of the model’s financial ratios. The author divided the borrowers into rating groups by score. The probability of default is the ratio of the number of defaults to the number of borrowers by group. The average default loss for each group depends on the collection / debt ratio in the bank under review. The score of a borrower brings them into a certain rating group, helps calculate the probability of a default and losses in case of default. The calculated expected losses may be of further use when determining loss provisions for potential loans. The author concludes that this method allows assessing risks and making a decision on lending to borrowers — agricultural producers. The expected credit loss approach will allow for more reasonable provisioning, which corresponds to other authors’ findings. Applying this method in a particular bank requires considering the specifics of the composition and structure of the loan portfolio. It is necessary to analyze the impact of the expected credit loss method on the profitability of banks.
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