Artificial Intelligence-Based Prediction of Crude Oil Prices Using Multiple Features under the Effect of Russia–Ukraine War and COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on crude oil prices just faded; at this moment, the Russia–Ukraine war brought a new crisis. In this paper, a new application is developed that predicts the change in crude oil prices by incorporating these two global effects. Unlike most existing studies, this work uses a dataset that involves data collected over twenty-two years and contains seven different features, such as crude oil opening, closing, intraday highest value, and intraday lowest value. This work applies cross-validation to predict the crude oil prices by using machine learning algorithms (support vector machine, linear regression, and rain forest) and deep learning algorithms (long short-term memory and bidirectional long short-term memory). The results obtained by machine learning and deep learning algorithms are compared. Lastly, the high-performance estimation can be achieved in this work with the average mean absolute error value over 0.3786.

Keywords

• prediction of crude oil prices
• COVID-19 effect
• Russia–Ukraine war effect
• machine learning
• deep learning
• time series forecasting