Communications Earth & Environment (Jul 2023)

Fire may prevent future Amazon forest recovery after large-scale deforestation

  • Markus Drüke,
  • Boris Sakschewski,
  • Werner von Bloh,
  • Maik Billing,
  • Wolfgang Lucht,
  • Kirsten Thonicke

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00911-5
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 4, no. 1
pp. 1 – 10

Abstract

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Abstract The Amazon forest is regarded as a tipping element of the Earth system, susceptible to a regime change from tropical forest to savanna and grassland due to anthropogenic land use and climate change. Previous research highlighted the role of fire in amplifying irreversible large-scale Amazon die-back. However, large-scale feedback analyses which integrate the interplay of fire with climate and land-use change are currently lacking. To address this gap, here we applied the fire-enabled Potsdam Earth Model to examine these feedback mechanisms in the Amazon. By studying forest recovery after complete deforestation, we discovered that fire prevents regrowth across 56-82% of the potential natural forest area, contingent on atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. This emphasizes the significant contribution of fire to the irreversible transition, effectively locking the Amazon into a stable grassland state. Introducing fire dynamics into future assessments is vital for understanding climate and land-use impacts in the region.