Estimated public health impact of nationwide vaccination of infants with 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in China

Abstract

Objectives: The goal of this study was to provide a comprehensive analysis of the potential health impact of universal vaccination of infants with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in China. Methods: A decision-analytic model designed for pneumococcal disease and outcomes of pneumococcal infection was populated with local age-specific incidence and mortality data to estimate the expected health benefits of vaccinating birth cohorts of approximately 16 million infants per year over a 10-year time horizon in China. The model incorporates both the direct impact on vaccinated children and the indirect effect of herd protection on unvaccinated children and adults. Results: The model predicts that more than 16.2 million cases of pneumococcal disease and 709 411 deaths could be prevented in China over the initial 10-year period following the introduction of the PCV7 vaccine. The majority of these health benefits are due to the indirect effectiveness of the vaccine on the unvaccinated population, resulting in approximately 10.8 million cases prevented and 636 371 lives saved over 10 years. Conclusions: The results suggest that a policy of universal PCV7 vaccination among infants in China would have a substantial positive public health impact on the population of China.

Keywords

• 7-Valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7)
• Decision analytic model
• Herd effect