Alexandria Engineering Journal (Jun 2022)
Dynamics of a fractional order Zika virus model with mutant
Abstract
In the present study, we develop a fractional Zika virus model with mutation, which causes new birth problems in infected pregnant women and further spread in society. As a consequence, we apply this notion to the fractional dynamics of the Zika virus. We also use fractional derivatives to gain a better understanding of biological processes and their crossover behavior. The model simulation is based on realColombia data. Mathematical modeling of an infectious disease helps out us in predicting the future spread. Recently, many mathematical models describe the dynamics of infectious disease based on classical integer-order and non-integer order models. Therefore, we study the dynamics of the Zika virus based on non-integer order derivatives for better understanding seen and deeper insight into several biological models. We also describe the different properties of the model like the positivity of the model solution, equilibrium points, and invariant property of the proposed model. The reproduction number is computed with the next-generation technique. The parameters are estimated from confirmed infected cases in Colombia for the year 2016 seems that the model is appropriate for this data set. Moreover, the sensitivity of R0 on the parameters calculated by the direct differentiation approach. The local and global stability analysis at disease-free and endemic states are investigated. The numerical approach generalized predictor–corrector is implemented for the validation of theoretical results and analyzing the effects of sensitive factors that might be helpful in reducing the infection. From graphical results, it is observed that the fractional model gives more insight and a better understanding of disease dynamics. These findings assist us in controlling the virus through contact precautions and recommended therapy, as well as projecting its future spread.
