Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida

Abstract

Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have been introduced to Florida on many occasions. Infrequently, these introductions lead to sporadic local transmission and, more rarely, sustained local transmission. Both mosquito species are present in Florida, with spatio-temporal variation in population composition. We developed a two-vector compartmental, deterministic model to investigate factors influencing Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) establishment. The model includes a nonlinear, temperature-dependent mosquito mortality function based on minimum mortality in a central temperature region. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate parameter sets used to simulate transmission dynamics, following the introduction of one infected human. The analysis was repeated for three values of the mortality function central temperature. Mean annual temperature was consistently important in the likelihood of epidemics, and epidemics increased as the central temperature increased. Ae. albopictus recruitment was influential at the lowest central temperature while Ae. aegypti recruitment was influential at higher central temperatures. Our results indicate that the likelihood of CHIKV establishment may vary, but overall Florida is permissive for introductions. Model outcomes were sensitive to the specifics of mosquito mortality. Mosquito biology parameters are variable, and improved understanding of this variation will improve our ability to predict the outcome of introductions.

Keywords

• Chikungunya virus
• invasion
• transmission dynamics
• <i>Aedes aegypti</i>
• Aedes albopictus
• mathematical model