Trade Conflicts and China's Macroeconomic Fluctuations ---An Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Autoregression Model

Abstract

This paper uses the data from November 2016 to June 2018 to construct a VAR model to empirically analyze the impact of trade wars on the Chinese economy since the trade friction between China and the United States. The empirical results show that the trade conflict between China and the United States will have short-term effects on financial institution loans, net export fluctuations, capital markets, short-term international capital flows, and the RMB exchange rate. After the impact of the trade war, the Chinese economy will have a spontaneous adjustment function, which will cause a certain positive and negative change in economic changes. But over time, the impact of Sino-US trade conflicts on financial institution loans, net export volatility, asset prices, short-term international capital flows, and the RMB exchange rate has gradually weakened until the gradual convergence to the zero axis and the effect disappears.

Keywords

• Trade conflict
• Macroeconomy
• Vector autoregression model
• Impulse response