A hybrid multi-criteria decision-making and system dynamics approach in vulnerability analysis of TNI-POLRI power

Abstract

This study analyzes the vulnerability of the power relations between the Indonesian National Armed Forces and the Indonesian National Police (TNI-Polri power relations) post-1998 Reform. This article employed exploratory sequential mixed methods in answering the research problem. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and System Dynamics methods were utilized in the study. Based on the research results, the variables of Socio-Economic (SE) Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity (AC) have the highest weight value of 0.329. Meanwhile, the variable of Institutional Vulnerability has the lowest weight, 0.142. Overall, the vulnerability value of TNI-Polri power relations post-1998 Reform was still in the Low Vulnerability category with a value of 1,699 (33.97%). The vulnerability value of TNI-Polri power relations in the next five years will increase from a score of 1.66 in 2022 to 1.74 in 2027 so that it will increase by 5% with the same category level, namely Low Vulnerability. This study is expected to strengthen TNI-Polri power relations in maintaining national political stability.