Climatic features and statistical evaluation of climate change in permafrost regions in the north of Western Siberia

Abstract

The relevance of the research is related to the necessity to assess climate changes affecting the permafrost due to the possible growth of greenhouse gas emissions and increase of accident rate in industrial, oil and gas infrastructure at permafrost thawing. The aim of the research is to estimate the current changes in climate characteristics, which affect directly the thermal state of soils in permafrost areas in the north of Western Siberia. Methods. Analysis of long-term changes of meteorological data consisted of tests of null hypothesis of randomness and homogeneity of observation series and trend presence. The homogeneity test was carried out using the Abbe test, the test of randomness was carried out by Pitman criterion, the trend presence was checked using the criterion of inversions. The conclusion on nonrandom change or violation of the homogeneity of rows corresponded to the condition, when the modulus of the estimated statistics exceeded the corresponding critical value at significance level of 0,05. Results. The paper considers the climatic features in the north of Western Siberia and its variability in recent years. The analysis of temperature changes of air and soil at depths of 160 and 320 cm, the amount of precipitation and snow cover based on the instrumental data for the last 35 years has shown that air temperature continues rising in the warmer months, soil temperature increases throughout the year. The authors have revealed zonal character of changes in the amount of precipitation and snow cover. Microclimatic changes in characteristic of meteorological values can distort the real picture of climate change.

Keywords

• morth of Western Siberia
• permafrost
• climate change
• statistical analysis
• soil temperature