Evolution of cobalt material flow in Japan from 2000 to 2020

Abstract

[Objective] Cobalt stands as a critical metal in the transition toward green, low-carbon energy. Japan, a significant consumer and trading hub for global cobalt resources, plays a pivotal role in elucidating the flow and evolutionary traits of global cobalt resources across the lifecycle, as well as the dynamic shifts in trade patterns. [Methods] This study employed the dynamic material flow analysis method to construct a framework analyzing the flow of cobalt within Japan’s trade network across its life cycle. It examined the evolution of cobalt material flow in Japan from 2000 to 2020. [Results] The flow analysis showed that Japan’s cobalt consumption totaled 272000 tons, showcasing notable alterations in flow and direction. The production of cobalt salt surged in the refining stages, witnessing a transition from consumer electronics batteries to electric vehicle batteries in manufacturing. Cobalt resource consumption during the usage stage demonstrated an initial increase followed by a subsequent decline, consistently led by consumer electronics batteries. With full recycling of waste in the waste management stage, the domestic demand of Japan could be met. The stock analysis showed that conventional applications experienced an initial rise followed by a decline, while emerging applications steadily grew. Consumer electronics batteries continued to dominate the stock structure, with electric vehicle batteries surpassing superalloys to secure the second position. The trade pattern analysis showed that despite a diversification of Japan’s import sources, material reliance on China surged significantly. Simultaneously, Japan’s cobalt-containing terminal product export market shifted from Asia to the United States and Europe. [Conclusion] Japan’s cobalt industry established a comprehensive processing model of “upper-middle stream in-flow and lower stream out-flow”. Driven by transportation energy shifts and industrial policies, electric vehicle batteries emerged as the primary driver for cobalt resource consumption in manufacturing. Japan ensures cobalt supply chain stability through resource diplomacy, substitution, and research and development in reduction technologies. On the one hand, the relevant conclusions can lay the foundation for global systematic and dynamic research on fine-grained country-scale cobalt material flows. On the other hand, this analysis of Japan’s cobalt material flow serves as a reference for China to accurately examine and evaluate the evolution of Japan’s cobalt supply and industrial chain. This knowledge may foster the improvement of strategic mineral security, particularly concerning cobalt.

Keywords

• |cobalt|life cycle|trade link|material flow analysis|japan