Stock market and macroeconomic variables: evidence for Brazil

Abstract

This article analyzes the influence of macroeconomic variables on the stock market. The analysis of this theme is crucial in the current economic context given the severe crisis and the continued growth of the stock market. This article covers an existing research gap about current stock market movements. The Geneneralized Least Squares Method with Prais-Winsten transformation was applied to correct the first-order autoregressive problem. The results show that the macroeconomic variables continue to influence Ibovespa, as stated in the literature. However, the central government’s financial stability variable has no explanatory power over the Brazilian stock market index, corroborating the literature and converging with the empirical observations from 2016 to 2019 of fiscal imbalance and growth of the Ibovespa.

Keywords

• macroeconomia
• mercado financeiro
• desempenho
• mercado de ações.