Persistent Spatial Patterns of <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> and <i>Salmonella enterica</i> Concentrations in Surface Waters: Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis of Data from Maryland

Abstract

High spatiotemporal variability of pathogen concentrations in surface waters complicates the design and interpretation of microbial water quality monitoring. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis can provide spatial patterns (EOFs) of variability in deviations of concentrations in specific locations from the average concentration across the study area. These patterns can be interpreted to assess the effect of environmental factors on pathogen levels in the water. The first and the second EOFs for Listeria monocytogenes explained 84.4% and 9.7% of the total variance of deviations from average, respectively. That percentage was 50.8% and 45.0% for Salmonella enterica. The precipitation also had a strong explanatory capability (79%) of the first EOF. The first EOFs of Listeria and precipitation were similar at pond sites but were opposite to the precipitation at the stream sites. The first EOF of S. enterica and precipitation demonstrated opposite trends, whereas the second S. enterica EOF pattern had similar signs with the precipitation EOF at pond sites, indicating a relationship between rainfall and Salmonella at these sites. Overall, the rainfall data could inform on persistent spatial patterns in concentrations of the two pathogens at the pond sites in farm settings but not at stream sites located in forested areas.

Keywords

• surface water
• irrigation
• pathogen
• rainfall effect
• spatial
• temporal patterns