Interdecadal Variation Trend of Arctic Wind Energy

Abstract

The Arctic’s navigation and utilization have garnered global interest due to the economic and strategic significance of its open shipping routes. The feasibility and cost-effectiveness of Arctic wind power generation depend largely on the potential of wind energy, which in turn influences the construction of new ports. In order to effectively harness polar wind energy, we must understand and adapt to its ever-changing rules. This study leverages ERA5′s 40-year wind field data to estimate the Theil–Sen Median slope and perform Mann–Kendall trend analysis. We consider factors such as wind power density, effective wind speed occurrence, energy level frequency, stability, and resource reserves to comprehensively analyze the intergenerational variations in Arctic wind energy resources. Our findings indicate that Northeast Passage, Davis Strait, and Baffin Bay possess favorable wind power density (1~2 W/m2·yr−1), effective wind speed occurrence (0.1~0.2%·yr−1), energy level frequency (0.1~0.2%·yr−1), stability (−0.005 yr−1), and resource reserves (1 kWh/m2·yr−1). However, these indicators are inferior in the Barents Sea, Canada’s northern archipelagos, and Greenland’s vicinity, where wind energy is relatively poor and unfavorable for development. Autumn dominates the annual change trend of Arctic wind energy, while spring and summer show no significant trends.

Keywords

• arctic
• wind energy
• interdecadal variation trend
• Theil–Sen Median