Multi-station artificial intelligence based ensemble modeling of suspended sediment load

Abstract

In this study, Artificial Intelligence (AI) models along with ensemble techniques were employed for predicting suspended sediment load (SSL) via single station and multi-station scenarios. Feed Forward Neural Networks (FFNNs), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), and Support Vector Regression (SVR) were the employed AI models, and simple averaging (SA), weighted averaging (WA), and neural averaging (NA) were the ensemble techniques developed for combining the outputs of the individual AI models to gain more accurate estimations of the SSL. For this purpose, twenty-year observed streamflow and SSL data of three gauging stations, located in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi regions were utilized at both daily and monthly scales. The obtained results of both scenarios indicated the supremacy of ensemble techniques to single AI models. The neural ensemble demonstrated more reliable performance compared to other ensemble techniques. For instance, in the first scenario, the ensemble technique increased the predicted results up to 20% in the verification phase of the daily and monthly modeling and up to 5 and 8%, respectively, in the verification step of the second scenario. HIGHLIGHTS Three AI models were applied for SSL modeling of a river.; Ensemble of output of models was performed by combining three methods.; Modeling was done using single and multi-station strategies.; Ensemble technique increased the predicted results up to 20% in verification phase.;

Keywords

• artificial intelligence
• mississippi river
• missouri river
• model ensemble
• sediment transport