Applicability of attribution methods for identifying runoff changes in changing environments

Abstract

Abstract Under the dual impacts of global climate change and human activities, how to accurately and quantitatively assess and identify changes in watershed runoff is crucial to the rational development and utilization of water resources. Different methods of identifying runoff change attribution are applicable to different environments. In this study, we used five different methods, including the double mass curve (DMC), the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), and the three Budyko hypotheses based on Fu, Choudhury‒Yang, and Milly‒Zhang formulas to explore the impact of human activities and climate change on runoff change in the Jinghe River basin (JRB). The results show that annual runoff of the JRB decreased considerably, and human activities accounted for more than 90%. Specifically, the results of the SWAT model and the three Budyko hypotheses are highly consistent except for the DMC method, which is not recommended in basins with significant changes in factors other than precipitation. More importantly, the Budyko hypothesis based on the Milly‒Zhang formula uses the vegetation water utilization coefficient to consider the impact of vegetation change on runoff, which is most consistent with the simulation results of the SWAT model and is recommended for the attribution analysis of changes in the Loess Plateau represented by the JRB.

Keywords

• Changing environment
• Runoff
• Quantitative identification
• Land use and cover change
• Jinghe River basin