Selecting and Analyzing Appropriate Probability Distributions for Reliability of Electrical Transmission Lines

Abstract

Reliability is the ability of a system and/or system components to function within a specified time under specified conditions. One of the most important criteria of electricity transmission systems is to be able to keep the energy on the system continuously within the limits and to be interrupted for the least possible time. The reliability study offers important advantages such as determining the appropriate operating range of the system and making the necessary intervention. In this study, it is aimed to show that the transmission lines can be interrupted for the least amount of time within the specified limits when the maintenance and the operation activities of electricity transmission lines are carried out with Reliability Centered Maintenance (RCM) in the foreground. In this direction, reliability analysis was conducted using transmission line fault data. Also, the Anderson-Darling goodness of fit test was performed to determine from which statistical distribution the transmission line fault data came from. The reliability of the transmission line is evaluated with the Log-normal distribution, which is determined by the goodness of fit. As a result of the reliability assessment, the reliability of the transmission line was found to be low. The advantages that transmission lines can provide when maintenance and operating activities are conducted based on reliability are presented.

Keywords

• goodness of fit
• anderson-darling test
• log-normal distribution
• reliability analysis
• mtbf
• rcm